000
WTNT42 KNHC 032037
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD
AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.
 
EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE
HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 38.2N  71.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 51.5N  59.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA