000
WTNT42 KNHC 031459
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A
HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND
THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 36.8N  73.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 39.7N  70.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 43.8N  66.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 49.0N  62.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 52.0N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA