000
WTNT42 KNHC 030241
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST
SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE
DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A
LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE
IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES.  MODEL FIELDS AND
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. 
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER
EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE
WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  EARL
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 33.8N  74.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 36.2N  73.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 39.5N  70.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 43.9N  66.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 48.4N  61.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN