000
WTNT42 KNHC 022039
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN.  AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 32.5N  75.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  72.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 41.7N  69.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA