000
WTNT42 KNHC 020907
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS
AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT.  EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK
INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. 
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER.  AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 29.3N  74.7W   125 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.3W   125 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 38.1N  72.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  69.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 50.5N  62.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN