000
WTNT42 KNHC 081437
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
 
REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER
IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS. 
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT
TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/13...BUT LANDFALL WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THESE RAINS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND
RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG