000
WTNT42 KNHC 080833
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

AFTER A PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
PRACTICALLY VANISHED. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION
DURING FORMATIVE STAGE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE
AREA IN TWO OR THREE HOURS AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT HOSTILE...A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. IF SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
KEPT IN THIS ADVISORY. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW
IMPORTANT STRENGTHENING.
 
BOTH...INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS
ARE FORECAST TO OCURR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND
RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 24.8N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.8N  96.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.5N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA