000
WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009
 
FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT.  THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10.  THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  34.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N  35.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  34.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N  34.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  35.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE