000
WTNT42 KNHC 090855
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CUBA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS A
LITTLE BEHIND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
RADAR PRESENTATION IS DEGRADING RAPIDLY. WITH NO DIRECT INFORMATION
AVAILABLE...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL...BUT I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...IS
050/4. WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...IT APPEARS THAT THE
DECOUPLING OF PALOMA IS UNDERWAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A VERY HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR PALOMA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES OVER WATER. IF THE PRESENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY THE NOGAPS
MAINTAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OUT TO 96 HOURS. A NUMBER OF THE
BETTER-PERFORMING TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW PALOMA...OR ITS
REMNANTS...BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AGAIN
BENEATH THE BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE
SYSTEM WOULD DEGENERATE EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR.  THE
LONGER PALOMA HOLDS TOGETHER THE FARTHER NORTHEAST IT WILL GET.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY 48 HOURS THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WILL STOP.  AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUIDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE HWRF...GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF TURN THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD BACK ACROSS CUBA...WHILE THE
GFS AND THE NOGAPS TURN THEM MORE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
LATTER OF THESE SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE LEFT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 21.3N  77.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.6N  77.1W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  76.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN