000
WTNT42 KNHC 191451
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  66
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED
25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN
DEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY.  BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
PROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING
LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL
PROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
ENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING
CURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON
THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 43.1N  45.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 45.9N  42.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 50.5N  37.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 55.7N  31.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 60.8N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB