000
WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  65
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
BERTHA HAS REMARKABLY MAINTAINED ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65
KNOTS BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER
BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS
TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.   

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL BECOME ABSORBED IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 41.2N  47.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 43.8N  44.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 48.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 58.0N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA