000
WTNT41 KNHC 040852
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022
 
The organization of the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico has continued to deteriorate overnight.  Scatterometer data
indicated that the system has an elongated region 200 n mi long by
50 n mi wide of light (< 10 kt) winds and no well-defined center.
In addition, about 30 kt of west-southwesterly shear and mid-level
dry air has stripped all associated deep convection in a
more-or-less linear band that extends 150-200 n mi east of the
estimated center.  In other words, the system has gone the wrong
way in becoming a tropical cyclone.  The estimated center is
located near the northern end of the area of light winds, and
maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on recent sustained winds of
29-31 kt measured at several marine sites near the Florida Keys.
 
The disturbance is moving faster toward the northeast (045/16 kt),
but this appears less of a continuous motion and more of a
re-formation of the center since yesterday afternoon.  This
behavior is likely to continue through the day as the system makes
its way toward and across Florida.  After that, the global models
suggest that the center may jump or re-form near the east-central
coast of Florida this afternoon or this evening and then develop
and maintain a more familiar tropical cyclone-like structure as it
heads northeastward and east-northeastward over the western
Atlantic through Monday.  The model trackers do not appear to be
handling the jumping of the low pressure or the re-formation of the
center, and for this cycle the NHC forecast leans heavily on a blend
of the global model fields.
 
Although deep-layer shear is expected to increase further, a
shortwave trough moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast
appears as though it will interact with the disturbance in about 24
hours and allow the expected newly formed low east of Florida to
develop a more well-defined circulation than what we've seen over
the past day or two.  This trough interaction could also allow the
system to intensify slightly over the next few days.  However, the
global models now suggest that the system could become an
extratropical low by day 3, which is now reflected in the official
forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida
and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 25.6N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/1800Z 27.1N  80.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  05/0600Z 28.6N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  05/1800Z 30.7N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 32.8N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 34.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 34.7N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/0600Z 37.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 42.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Berg