000
WTNT41 KNHC 070841
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021
 
Wanda is barely hanging on as a sheared tropical storm due to a 
small burst of deep convection located in the southeastern quadrant. 
The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt based on earlier 
30-kt ASCAT data being co-located with the new burst of deep 
convection. Little or no change in strength is expected during the 
next 36 hours due to southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing to 
more than 40 kt by 18-24 hours, and sea-surface temperatures 
decreasing to less than 20 deg C beneath the cyclone. In the 18-24-h 
period, Wanda is expected to merge with a rapidly approaching cold 
front currently located to its west, becoming extratropical tonight 
and dissipating over the far northeastern Atlantic on Monday.

The initial motion estimate is now 050/15 kt. There are no 
significant changes to the previous forecast track and rationale. 
During the next 24 hours or so, Wanda is expected to continue  
accelerating northeastward ahead of a strong deep-layer trough and 
associated cold front. After merging with the front system, the 
extratropical low should maintain a fast northeastward motion until 
it dissipates by 48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is very 
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the 
tightly packed consensus track models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 38.5N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 41.6N  31.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 46.6N  24.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/1800Z 51.1N  17.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart