000
WTNT41 KNHC 061442
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory, 
with a band of convection near the center in the northern 
semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the 
center.  The various objective and subjective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 30-47 kt.  Given the spread and the unchanged 
structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 180/5 kt.  Satellite imagery shows a large 
mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and 
northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn 
northeastward during the next 12 h.  After that, Wanda is expected 
to accelerate toward the northeast.  The current guidance is in 
good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little 
slower than the previous guidance.  The new forecast track is 
similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude 
low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h. 
Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and 
become an extratropical low.  The global models subsequently 
forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new 
intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time.  Otherwise, there 
are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 37.0N  38.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 37.6N  36.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 40.5N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 45.3N  26.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 50.6N  18.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven