000
WTNT41 KNHC 050852
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021
 
Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday
evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the
western half of the circulation.  Dry and stable air is apparently
limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone.
The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory,
which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good
agreement with earlier scatterometer observations.  This seems
reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little
overnight.
 
The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving
east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt.  Wanda is expected to turn
southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a
mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone.  After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an
increasing forward speed.  The official forecast is similar to the
dynamical track model consensus.
 
Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear
is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this
should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or
strengthen a bit.  After about 48 hours, vertical shear is
predicted to increase significantly.  However, baroclinic
effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset
the weakening process.  By 72 hours, the global models indicate
that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus
have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 41.8N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 40.3N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 38.2N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 37.8N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 39.3N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 43.0N  31.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 47.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0600Z 53.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch