000
WTNT41 KNHC 191253
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi
west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special
advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been
adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward
adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The
aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made
to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at
1500 UTC.
 
Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.  However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1300Z 17.6N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.2N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.3N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 20.2N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.3N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 22.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 24.3N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 25.8N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 27.7N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto