381 
WTNT41 KNHC 230830
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012021
500 AM AST Sun May 23 2021
 
Satellite images indicate that Ana has contracted significantly 
since yesterday and now has a compact area of moderate convection 
around the center.  Given the tight low-level circulation, small 
radius of maximum wind, and compact central convection, Ana is 
now estimated to have transitioned from a subtropical storm to a 
tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this 
advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data, which indicated that the 
tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the south side of the 
circulation.

Ana is not expected to be around much longer.  The storm is headed 
for an environment of lower SSTs, drier air, and increasing wind 
shear.  All of these factors should cause the compact cyclone to 
lose strength and ultimately open into a trough in 24 to 36 hours.  
In fact, some of the models suggest that the storm could dissipate 
even sooner than that.  The remnants of Ana will likely be absorbed 
by a cold front on Monday.

The storm continues to increase its forward speed, and the initial 
motion is now estimated to be 045/10 kt. A faster motion to the 
northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 35.7N  60.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 36.7N  58.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 39.4N  53.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi