000
WTNT41 KNHC 222039
TCDAT1
 
Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012021
500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021

While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the 
amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours.  
In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened.  
The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs 
should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models 
now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h.  The new 
intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation 
just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate 
earlier than currently forecast.

Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours, 
and the initial motion is now 050/4.  A continued northeastward 
motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly 
flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north 
and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 34.5N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 34.9N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 36.2N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 38.3N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven