000
WTNT41 KNHC 220832
TCDAT1
 
Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012021
500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021
 
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that is
located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda has become
better organized overnight.  The low now has a well-defined center
of circulation, some central deep convection, and thunderstorms that
are organized in curved bands to the north and northeast of the
center.   The system is considered a subtropical cyclone rather than
a tropical cyclone since it is still entangled with an upper-level
low as evident in water vapor satellite images, but it does have
some tropical characteristics as well.  The initial intensity is
estimated to be 40 kt, which makes the system Subtropical Storm Ana.
 
Ana is moving slowly to the west-southwest with the initial motion
estimated to be 240/3 kt.  An even slower motion is expected later
this morning, and Ana is forecast to meander through tonight while
it remains embedded within the upper-level low in weak steering
currents.  However, a mid- to upper-level trough moving off of
Atlantic Canada should cause Ana to turn northeastward thereafter
and accelerate in that direction on Sunday and Monday.  The NHC
track forecast lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.
 
Ana will likely change little in strength in the short term, but a
combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should
cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday.  Nearly all
of the models show Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in
about 48 to 60 hours, and so does the NHC forecast.  The remnant
trough will likely be absorbed by a front shortly thereafter.
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect
for the island of Bermuda.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 34.2N  62.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 34.3N  62.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 35.1N  61.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 36.2N  59.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 37.9N  55.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi