000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event.  The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection.  In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature.  Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression.  Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7.  Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation.  The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 30.8N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 31.5N  67.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 31.7N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch