893 
WTNT41 KNHC 020254
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

Florence continues to become better organized, with a circular
central dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all
quadrants except the southwest.  Satellite intensity estimates
range from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to
45 kt.  Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it
is possible this is conservative.

For the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear
environment over sea surface temperatures near 26C.  Most of the
guidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast
follows suit.  After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and
encounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to
result in little change in strength during this period.  The
intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous
advisory and remains near the consensus aids.  Considering the lack
of shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising
if Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next
couple of days.

The initial motion is 290/12.  The track guidance suggests a
general west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4
days as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north.
Near the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion
is expected.  Despite the relatively straightforward steering
pattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by
72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance
envelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical
models loosely clustered in between.  However, the overall guidance
envelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new
track forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 16.0N  30.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.5N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.1N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 17.6N  37.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.2N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 19.5N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 21.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 24.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven