000
WTNT41 KNHC 281444
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Alberto has struggled to produce significant deep convection since
early this morning, however, there are several bands of shallow
convection that wrap around the eastern and northern portions of the
circulation.  The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not
found winds as high as last evening, but has reported SFMR winds of
45 to 50 kt which support an initial intensity of 50 kt.  The
pressure has risen a couple of millibars with data from a recent
center dropsonde supporting a minimum pressure of 992 mb.

Since the primary convective bands are already moving onshore along
the coast of the Florida panhandle, little change in strength is
expected through landfall later today.  After landfall, Alberto
should quickly weaken and become a depression tonight or early
Tuesday, then degenerate into a remnant low over the Tennessee
Valley in about 36 hours.

The latest couple of center fixes from the aircraft show that
Alberto has jogged to the east this morning.  The longer-term
motion, however, is generally northward at about 7 kt.  A northward
to north-northwestward motion should bring the center onshore in the
Florida panhandle this afternoon or evening.  After landfall, the
system should continue generally northward around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic.
Before the system is absorbed by a frontal boundary over Canada late
in the week, it should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving
through the central United States.  The track guidance is in
relatively good agreement, and only minor adjustments were needed
to the previous NHC track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.  A risk of flooding and
flash flooding will continue over central Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and southern Florida today.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area are
encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area today.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 29.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 30.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 33.0N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0000Z 35.9N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 38.9N  87.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 44.9N  84.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 48.5N  78.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown