000
WTNT41 KNHC 030842
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013
 
A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF...
PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK
INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH
OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS
INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS.
 
THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE
FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES
STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08.  JERRY
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 30.2N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 31.3N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 32.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 33.4N  34.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 34.4N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 37.5N  28.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN