000
WTNT41 KNHC 030242
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY
THIS EVENING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT
30 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED.  THE POSITION
INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  JERRY IS LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER
TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR.  THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM.  AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY
WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION
PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 30.6N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 32.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 33.4N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 36.0N  29.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 38.5N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA