000
WTNT41 KNHC 021431
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  JERRY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING
TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A
LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE.   
 
CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES.  A BROAD TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN
OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 28.2N  43.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 29.1N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 30.3N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 31.4N  39.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 32.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 34.7N  31.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 37.5N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH