000
WTNT41 KNHC 012037
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013
 
AFTER BEING SERIOUS DISRUPTED EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF THE STORM HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF
ORGANIZATION.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED SLIGHTLY WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THERE IS JUST A LITTLE EVIDENCE
OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...JERRY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHEAST.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION.  THE NEW GFS FORECAST IS EVEN FASTER AND THIS IS A FAIRLY
DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THIS MODEL.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 28.1N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 28.4N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 29.1N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 30.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 31.0N  41.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 33.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 34.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 37.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH