000
WTNT41 KNHC 292037
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED
EARLIER TODAY.  MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OBSCURED THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...
HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/9.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AND...ACCORDING TO
SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A CLOCKWISE LOOP.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AS BEFORE...ALSO INDICATES A LOOPING TRACK.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 27.2N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 27.3N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 27.3N  46.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 26.9N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 26.7N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 27.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 31.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH