000
WTNT41 KNHC 252331
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2300Z 19.2N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.5N  96.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1800Z 20.1N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/0600Z 20.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART