000
WTNT41 KNHC 012034
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
OPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A
DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
BECAUSE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS.
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR
010 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN
THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE EAST OF
BERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 31.6N  62.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 35.0N  62.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 40.0N  60.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 48.0N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1800Z 50.0N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA