000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210859 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 3(23) X(23) 1(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 12 10(22) 3(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 198N 1075W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 198N 1075W 50 75 3(78) 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 12 198N 1075W 64 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 24 202N 1082W 34 74 10(84) 3(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 202N 1082W 50 18 20(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 24 202N 1082W 64 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 36 206N 1093W 34 11 29(40) 19(59) 6(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) 36 206N 1093W 50 X 8( 8) 11(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 36 206N 1093W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 48 211N 1108W 34 2 5( 7) 20(27) 13(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) 48 211N 1108W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 48 211N 1108W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 220N 1140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 2(18) X(18) 72 220N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 220N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 230N 1175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 96 230N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 230N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 235N 1215W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 235N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 235N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 60 60 55 45 30 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI