000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210237 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) CULICAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 4 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 14 15(29) 5(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 196N 1075W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 196N 1075W 50 67 8(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 12 196N 1075W 64 31 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 24 202N 1081W 34 73 14(87) 3(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 24 202N 1081W 50 16 30(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 24 202N 1081W 64 3 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 36 206N 1090W 34 23 33(56) 12(68) 5(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) 36 206N 1090W 50 1 14(15) 13(28) 4(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 36 206N 1090W 64 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 48 210N 1105W 34 2 11(13) 20(33) 13(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) 48 210N 1105W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 48 210N 1105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 215N 1137W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) 72 215N 1137W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 215N 1137W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 220N 1175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 96 220N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 220N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 225N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 225N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 225N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 70 65 60 45 30 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN