000 FOPZ15 KNHC 202033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 11(16) 11(27) 9(36) X(36) X(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 4 6(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 7 9(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 7 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 9 17(26) 9(35) 4(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 192N 1074W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 192N 1074W 50 66 10(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 12 192N 1074W 64 31 10(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 24 199N 1079W 34 73 15(88) 3(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) 24 199N 1079W 50 14 35(49) 7(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) 24 199N 1079W 64 4 17(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 36 204N 1086W 34 26 38(64) 11(75) 4(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) 36 204N 1086W 50 1 20(21) 15(36) 5(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) 36 204N 1086W 64 X 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 48 208N 1097W 34 4 23(27) 22(49) 10(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) 48 208N 1097W 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) 48 208N 1097W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 72 215N 1130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 19(29) 4(33) X(33) 72 215N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 215N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 220N 1170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 96 220N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 220N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 225N 1210W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 225N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 225N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 75 70 60 40 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN