000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200837 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 16(35) 3(38) X(38) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 15(33) 3(36) X(36) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 4(21) 1(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) SAN BLAS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 2 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 6(10) 5(15) 2(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) MANZANILLO 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 5(24) 2(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 8( 9) 13(22) 7(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 183N 1068W 34 91 4(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 12 183N 1068W 50 32 12(44) 2(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 12 183N 1068W 64 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 191N 1075W 34 40 35(75) 7(82) 2(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) 24 191N 1075W 50 3 28(31) 8(39) 2(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) 24 191N 1075W 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 36 199N 1082W 34 4 41(45) 21(66) 6(72) 4(76) X(76) 1(77) 36 199N 1082W 50 X 9( 9) 17(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 36 199N 1082W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 48 207N 1089W 34 1 15(16) 28(44) 15(59) 7(66) 1(67) X(67) 48 207N 1089W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) 48 207N 1089W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 72 217N 1107W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 14(41) 4(45) 1(46) 72 217N 1107W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) 72 217N 1107W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 96 225N 1135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) 96 225N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 96 225N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 230N 1170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 120 230N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 230N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 65 70 75 65 50 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB