000 FOPZ15 KNHC 192031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 7(29) 2(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 6(28) 2(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 3(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 3(24) X(24) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 7 8(15) 6(21) 3(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 5 4( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 4(22) 3(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 4(22) 1(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) 10(36) 4(40) 1(41) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 178N 1060W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 178N 1060W 50 17 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) 12 178N 1060W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 184N 1067W 34 43 25(68) 9(77) 3(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) 24 184N 1067W 50 3 15(18) 10(28) 3(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) 24 184N 1067W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 192N 1074W 34 6 29(35) 25(60) 7(67) 5(72) 1(73) 1(74) 36 192N 1074W 50 X 4( 4) 15(19) 6(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) 36 192N 1074W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 48 200N 1079W 34 1 11(12) 30(42) 12(54) 9(63) 2(65) X(65) 48 200N 1079W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) 48 200N 1079W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 72 210N 1090W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 16(32) 15(47) 4(51) 1(52) 72 210N 1090W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) 72 210N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 96 215N 1105W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 17(29) 6(35) 1(36) 96 215N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) 96 215N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 220N 1135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 120 220N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 220N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 70 75 65 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN