000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 5(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 5(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 1(23) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 5(25) 3(28) 1(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 6(22) 2(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 6(27) 2(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 1053W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 170N 1053W 50 2 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) 12 170N 1053W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 175N 1059W 34 27 30(57) 8(65) 4(69) 3(72) X(72) 1(73) 24 175N 1059W 50 1 9(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) 24 175N 1059W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 181N 1066W 34 5 29(34) 18(52) 9(61) 4(65) 3(68) X(68) 36 181N 1066W 50 X 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) 36 181N 1066W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 48 187N 1073W 34 1 12(13) 22(35) 14(49) 9(58) 3(61) 1(62) 48 187N 1073W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) 1(22) 48 187N 1073W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 200N 1085W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 17(41) 7(48) 1(49) 72 200N 1085W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) 72 200N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 210N 1105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 11(30) 4(34) 96 210N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 96 210N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 215N 1130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 120 215N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 120 215N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 50 55 65 70 70 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB