000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 2100 UTC THU OCT 18 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 7(20) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 5(21) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 6(25) 3(28) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 12(30) 6(36) 2(38) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 12(39) 8(47) 4(51) 1(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 10(11) 18(29) 10(39) 7(46) 3(49) 2(51) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 5 12(17) 7(24) 4(28) 5(33) 1(34) 1(35) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 10(33) 4(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 172N 1037W 34 51 18(69) 6(75) 2(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) 12 172N 1037W 50 3 6( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) 12 172N 1037W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 177N 1039W 34 28 26(54) 10(64) 4(68) 3(71) 1(72) 1(73) 24 177N 1039W 50 2 7( 9) 7(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) 1(24) 24 177N 1039W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 36 183N 1045W 34 6 24(30) 19(49) 8(57) 5(62) 2(64) 2(66) 36 183N 1045W 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) 4(23) 1(24) 1(25) 36 183N 1045W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 48 189N 1051W 34 1 11(12) 22(34) 11(45) 8(53) 4(57) 1(58) 48 189N 1051W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 6(21) 3(24) X(24) 48 189N 1051W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 72 195N 1060W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 11(43) 8(51) 2(53) 72 195N 1060W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 1(20) 72 195N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 96 210N 1075W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 14(37) 5(42) 96 210N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 96 210N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 120 220N 1095W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 7(25) 120 220N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 120 220N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 70 80 85 85 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN