000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181431 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 1500 UTC THU OCT 18 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 2(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 3(24) 1(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 3(23) 1(24) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 9(11) 5(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 3(15) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 1032W 34 18 17(35) 7(42) 2(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) 12 170N 1032W 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 12 170N 1032W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 175N 1032W 34 8 16(24) 9(33) 5(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) 24 175N 1032W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 24 175N 1032W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 180N 1035W 34 3 11(14) 10(24) 7(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) 36 180N 1035W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 36 180N 1035W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 185N 1042W 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 7(28) 1(29) 1(30) 48 185N 1042W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 48 185N 1042W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 195N 1050W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 3(22) 1(23) 72 195N 1050W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 195N 1050W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 205N 1060W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 3(18) 96 205N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 205N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 220N 1075W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 120 220N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 220N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 55 55 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN