000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC THU OCT 18 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 3(21) 1(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 159N 1036W 34 21 23(44) 3(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) 12 159N 1036W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 12 159N 1036W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 167N 1035W 34 5 24(29) 7(36) 5(41) 2(43) X(43) 1(44) 24 167N 1035W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 24 167N 1035W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 175N 1038W 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 8(32) 3(35) 2(37) X(37) 36 175N 1038W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 175N 1038W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 182N 1045W 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 10(22) 7(29) 3(32) 1(33) 48 182N 1045W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 48 182N 1045W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 190N 1055W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 8(20) 4(24) 2(26) 72 190N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 72 190N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 96 200N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 2(19) 96 200N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 96 200N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 220N 1080W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 120 220N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 220N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 40 45 50 55 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME