000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0300 UTC THU OCT 18 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 4(22) 1(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 2(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 152N 1041W 34 24 17(41) 4(45) 2(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) 12 152N 1041W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 152N 1041W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 160N 1038W 34 5 17(22) 11(33) 5(38) 3(41) 1(42) 1(43) 24 160N 1038W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 24 160N 1038W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 36 168N 1039W 34 1 9(10) 14(24) 8(32) 6(38) 3(41) 1(42) 36 168N 1039W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 36 168N 1039W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 174N 1044W 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 10(25) 10(35) 3(38) 1(39) 48 174N 1044W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 48 174N 1044W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 185N 1055W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 5(29) 2(31) 72 185N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 72 185N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 190N 1060W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 5(24) 3(27) 96 190N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 96 190N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 200N 1070W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 3(18) 120 200N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 120 200N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 40 45 55 60 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE