000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170830 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC WED OCT 17 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 144N 1070W 34 34 12(46) 6(52) 2(54) 2(56) 2(58) X(58) 12 144N 1070W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 12 144N 1070W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 148N 1068W 34 16 16(32) 9(41) 3(44) 3(47) 3(50) X(50) 24 148N 1068W 50 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 24 148N 1068W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 152N 1068W 34 7 14(21) 12(33) 5(38) 5(43) 3(46) X(46) 36 152N 1068W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 36 152N 1068W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 157N 1068W 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 6(31) 7(38) 4(42) X(42) 48 157N 1068W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 48 157N 1068W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 167N 1068W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 9(27) 5(32) 1(33) 72 167N 1068W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 72 167N 1068W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 175N 1075W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 6(23) 2(25) 96 175N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 96 175N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 180N 1080W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 2(20) 120 180N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 180N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 40 40 45 50 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH