000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161441 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 143N 1085W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 143N 1085W 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 12 143N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 24 145N 1085W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 24 145N 1085W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 145N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 150N 1085W 34 7 11(18) 7(25) 3(28) 5(33) 1(34) 1(35) 36 150N 1085W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 36 150N 1085W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 153N 1085W 34 3 9(12) 9(21) 4(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) 48 153N 1085W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 48 153N 1085W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 155N 1090W 34 2 6( 8) 7(15) 5(20) 4(24) 2(26) 1(27) 72 155N 1090W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 155N 1090W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 160N 1095W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) 96 160N 1095W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 160N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 165N 1100W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 8(14) 1(15) 1(16) 120 165N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 120 165N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA