000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160831 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 143N 1087W 34 34 12(46) 3(49) 2(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) 12 143N 1087W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 143N 1087W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 144N 1084W 34 28 13(41) 3(44) 3(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) 24 144N 1084W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 24 144N 1084W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 146N 1083W 34 23 11(34) 5(39) 3(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) 36 146N 1083W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 146N 1083W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 147N 1085W 34 25 10(35) 4(39) 3(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) 48 147N 1085W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 48 147N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 150N 1090W 34 17 8(25) 4(29) 6(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39) 72 150N 1090W 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 150N 1090W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 155N 1095W 34 4 4( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) 96 155N 1095W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 96 155N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 160N 1100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) 120 160N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 120 160N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH