000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150247 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 152N 1085W 34 34 15(49) 6(55) 2(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) 12 152N 1085W 50 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 12 152N 1085W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 154N 1083W 34 28 17(45) 6(51) 4(55) 2(57) 1(58) 1(59) 24 154N 1083W 50 2 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) 24 154N 1083W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 155N 1080W 34 20 18(38) 8(46) 5(51) 4(55) 1(56) 1(57) 36 155N 1080W 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 36 155N 1080W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 48 157N 1078W 34 11 21(32) 10(42) 5(47) 6(53) 2(55) X(55) 48 157N 1078W 50 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 48 157N 1078W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 165N 1075W 34 2 11(13) 11(24) 8(32) 7(39) 3(42) 1(43) 72 165N 1075W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 72 165N 1075W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 96 175N 1080W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 8(26) 5(31) 1(32) 96 175N 1080W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 96 175N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 180N 1090W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 6(22) 2(24) 120 180N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 120 180N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 50 50 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME