000 FOPZ15 KNHC 312034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 190N 1201W 34 36 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 12 190N 1201W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 190N 1201W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 193N 1225W 34 1 25(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 193N 1225W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 193N 1225W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 197N 1247W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 36 197N 1247W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 197N 1247W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 201N 1267W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) 48 201N 1267W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 201N 1267W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 204N 1310W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 72 204N 1310W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 204N 1310W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 205N 1355W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 96 205N 1355W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 205N 1355W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 205N 1395W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 205N 1395W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 205N 1395W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 30 30 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE