000 FOPZ15 KNHC 311442 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 192N 1191W 34 36 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 12 192N 1191W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 192N 1191W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 194N 1213W 34 1 25(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 194N 1213W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 194N 1213W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 199N 1236W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 36 199N 1236W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 199N 1236W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 204N 1258W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) 48 204N 1258W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 204N 1258W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 207N 1303W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) 72 207N 1303W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 207N 1303W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 210N 1345W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 96 210N 1345W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 210N 1345W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 210N 1385W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 210N 1385W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 210N 1385W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 30 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE