000 FOPZ14 KNHC 170857 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 13(37) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) YUMA AZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) TIJUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 8(44) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 65(76) X(76) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 46(79) X(79) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) X(43) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 9(29) X(29) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 2(33) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 30 32(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 110W 50 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 3 8(11) 26(37) 9(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 27(31) 60(91) 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 54(57) 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 15(50) 1(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 68(69) 12(81) X(81) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 16(50) X(50) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) X(31) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 30N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG