000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) 25(32) 8(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 160N 1127W 34 33 17(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 12 160N 1127W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 160N 1127W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 169N 1137W 34 4 33(37) 10(47) 2(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 24 169N 1137W 50 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 24 169N 1137W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 180N 1145W 34 1 11(12) 25(37) 6(43) 2(45) X(45) 1(46) 36 180N 1145W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 180N 1145W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 189N 1150W 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 9(33) 6(39) 1(40) X(40) 48 189N 1150W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 48 189N 1150W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 197N 1158W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) 72 197N 1158W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 197N 1158W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 200N 1170W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) 96 200N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 96 200N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 200N 1180W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) 120 200N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 200N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 40 30 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA