000 FOPZ14 KNHC 110850 PWSEP4 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X 8( 8) 43(51) 6(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 129N 1411W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 129N 1411W 50 64 17(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 12 129N 1411W 64 36 19(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 24 133N 1434W 34 1 81(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 24 133N 1434W 50 X 49(49) 15(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 24 133N 1434W 64 X 24(24) 13(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 36 138N 1456W 34 X 11(11) 57(68) 13(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) 36 138N 1456W 50 X 2( 2) 35(37) 13(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 36 138N 1456W 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 48 144N 1480W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 37(54) 16(70) X(70) X(70) 48 144N 1480W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) 48 144N 1480W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 72 155N 1525W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40) 1(41) 72 155N 1525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 72 155N 1525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 170N 1560W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) 96 170N 1560W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 96 170N 1560W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 185N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 120 185N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 185N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105 105 95 85 70 60 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI