000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250826 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 6 20 38 TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 5 26 35 37 TROPICAL STORM 1 13 42 54 56 41 24 HURRICANE 99 87 57 41 13 5 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 37 56 43 31 11 4 1 HUR CAT 2 55 23 10 7 2 X X HUR CAT 3 6 7 3 3 X X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 70KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART