000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241439 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 13 36 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 10 29 36 TROPICAL STORM X 1 6 19 58 49 27 HURRICANE 99 99 94 80 30 9 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 7 29 43 24 8 1 HUR CAT 2 6 26 35 23 5 1 X HUR CAT 3 74 52 25 12 2 X X HUR CAT 4 19 13 5 3 X X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 110KT 105KT 95KT 85KT 65KT 50KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 85 11(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA CLARION 50 21 37(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA CLARION 64 3 25(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN